I don’t always like to do reposts, but this one I found very interesting – mainly because I have noticed it to be somewhat true in Northern NJ. I’ve noticed that houses under 300K in towns with a NJ Transit train to NYC (Montclair, Glen Ridge, Maplewood, South Orange, Bloomfield, Summit, Millburn, Short Hills, Westfield, Cranford, Chatham, Madison, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, to name a few…even West Orange, who lives and dies by the jitney to the train) have either all but disappeared….(ok some of these towns don’t even have houses that low)…or they are lingering in a state of limbo: sitting in the cold, often in disrepair and unloved by any first time home buyer and too small for serious consideration from investors. Some of these houses have amazing potential, and it seems a shame for them not to be loved. My point is, if you can’t compete for a turn-key home because multiple offers keep shutting you out, then find the smaller house that needs love and get your self a good deal on a fixer upper – you’ll spend less money and end up with a house that has all the features you want because you put them in. Enjoy the article:
Black Knight: Affordable homes lagging behind in home price recovery
Lower price homes appreciated more, faster in the bubble
In the 10 states where prices are still furthest from their pre-crisis peaks, homes in the bottom 20% value tier are lagging – sometimes considerably – in recovery as compared to the highest valued properties, according to Black Knight’s November Mortgage Monitor.
In California, for example, properties in the top 20% price tier are now just over 3% behind their pre-crisis peaks; the lowest 20% are still 32% off those peaks.
In many cases, these disparities boil down to the fact that during the bubble, lower-tier properties appreciated at much higher rates than higher-valued properties, then fell harder and further when the bubble broke.
According to Trey Barnes, Black Knight’s senior vice president of Loan Data Products, home price recovery for the lowest 20% of property values has lagged behind those at the top in America’s hardest hit states.
“We looked at HPI appreciation from pre-crisis peaks to today in the 10 states currently trailing the furthest behind their pre-crisis housing maximums,” said Barnes. “The data showed a clear difference in the levels of recovery among home price tiers. The Black Knight HPI separates home values for every geographical division into five equal tiers; those in the lowest 20% of home values have been lagging behind their higher-valued counterparts in recovery to pre-crisis peaks, sometimes considerably.
“For example, in Nevada – overall, still more than 39% off its pre-crisis peak – properties in the lowest tier are nearly 47% off their peaks, as compared to 36% for those in the highest tier. In California, an even starker contrast emerges: properties in the highest tier have now come within just over 3% of their pre-crisis peak, while those in the lowest 20% are still almost 32% down. In many cases, these disparities between price tiers can be attributed to the fact that during the bubble, lower-tier properties appreciated at much higher rates than higher-valued properties and likewise fell harder and further when the bubble broke.”
Black Knight also looked into the current state of play with regard to loan modifications and found overall activity was down in 2014.
HAMP mods accounted for over half of all modifications performed last year, with the majority of HAMP activity shifting overwhelmingly to FHA/VA mortgages (close to 70% of 2014 HAMP mods, as compared to just 13% of the same in 2013).
HAMP mods re-default at much lower rates than proprietary mods, but 2014 HAMP mods are re-defaulting at higher rate than either of the prior two years.
Finally, Black Knight performed a deeper analysis on this month’s 11.8% spike in the national delinquency rate.
While seasonality suggests that such increases can be expected each November, this was the largest such jump in six years; in fact, it was the largest month-over-month increase for any month since November 2008. However, the size of the increase can be largely attributed to a reduced number of payment processing days for the month (given two federal holidays and the month ending on a Sunday).
Trey Garrison is the Senior Financial Reporter for HousingWire.com. Trey has served as real estate editor for the Dallas Business Journal, and was one of the founding editors of D CEO Magazine. He has been an editor for D Magazine — considered among the best city magazines in the United States — and a contributor for Reason magazine.
NJ realtors have a vital resource for the somewhat tricky business of projecting what the real estate market will be like over the next few years – information provided for by statistical guru Jeffrey Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group is a key. Like the Nate Silver of Real Estate!
His most recent spring assessment has some enlightening and somewhat sobering news about how the numbers will likely move, and below is a highlight reel of information that buyers and sellers might find really useful.
Prices in NJ will likely rise an average of about 6% this year, then by 2015, there will be a plateauing – a move sideways. Not a major bust but a combination of rising interest rates and an assault on entry level job growth are going to be a factor. What is that? An “assault” on job growth? Well, example…the food chain Applebees is doing away with their wait staff and moving their order system to a self-serve tablet system – see link here: http://www.dailyfinance.com/on/applebees-tablets-tables-customers-order-pay-automation/. Businesses that have the ability to automate are already doing so, and it will affect the buying power of the first time home buyer, without a doubt, which in turns affects sellers looking to sell their entry level home into a more “move up” sized home.
On the other end of the age spectrum, baby boomers who are a huge part of the ebb and flow of money in this country will be stepping back from the previously ubiquitous role they took in the marketplace. They will pull back, prep for retirement, move onto fixed incomes and spend less. This, coupled with the fact that many industries are actually relocating into areas closer to the future talent pool of workers, will affect the real estate market. Where is this talent pool of the future you ask? Proximity to urban centers – such as the City, boroughs…oh and lovely towns with easy access to NYC in 45 minutes or less…(Montclair, Glen Ridge, Bloomfield, West Orange, South Orange, Ridgewood, Summit, Millburn, Livingston, Maplewood, Clifton, Caldwells, Verona, Cedar Grove, New Providence, Short Hills, Chatham, Madison to name a few…)
The upshot? The market is strong right now – a good time to buy or sell. The interest rates are low enough to maximize your buying power and prices are still reasonable. For sellers, the market is healthy enough for 2014, and a little harder to predict for 2015. If you are on the fence about a move, ask me more about the process and I will be happy to review some facts and figures for you. Education is your best tool to help you navigate the changing real estate market of our times.
So the news makes it look like the end of the world is upon us – and we’re all worried about the Post Office getting checks out on time to pay the bills, renewing our passports for the trip to Italy this summer or whether Grandma is going to get her social security check this month. And since this is a real estate driven blog, let’s take a minute and find out how the shutdown is changing the value of our homes. A big piece of our home value is based on buyers finding loans, and more than 90% of all loans are insured, underwritten or owned by our government, and one would be correct to think the shutdown will bring changes to this process. But maybe less than you’d think.
Morgan Brennan has written a piece for Forbes describing the situation:
Initially at least, the mortgage market is likely to be only minimally impacted. New loans will continue to push through most government agency pipelines. What will change is how long the process takes, as many agencies expect to experience delays.
The culprit? Mainly, getting qualified.
[I]f the government shutdown of 1995-1996 is any indicator, the process will take longer than usual. “Loan Guaranty certificates of eligibility and certificates of reasonable value were delayed,” the VA warned in its September 25th contingency plan.
Rumors of an FHA shutdown are unfounded, but have an unusual source:
Where there has been mounting concern is the Federal Housing Administration, which currently endorses about 15% of the entire single-family mortgage market. Several media outlets recently reported that the FHA would be unable to endorse any single-family loans and that no staff would be available underwrite and approve new loans.
That prospect would be somewhat worrisome – if it were actually true. The FHA’s Office of Single Family Housing will indeed remain open for business, albeit with a smaller staff. “FHA will be able to endorse single family loans during the shutdown. A limited number of FHA staff will be available to underwrite and approve new loans,” the report now states. In other words, other lenders’ loans will continue to be insured and some in-house lending will continue to take place at a reduced rate.
The reason for that mix-up: the initial draft of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s contingency plan mistakenly stated that single-family loan operations would cease. The report was amended over the weekend.
Apparently, the FHA’s single family home unit is funded with through the next fiscal year, but this is not the case for the Multifamily Housing Office, so expect delays getting a loan for that condo.
Our team website has added some powerful new search tools! Stop by for a look, and visit often as we frequently change to bring you the latest in search technologies.
Please use the link below to search for houses. The link will send you to our team’s website, njdreamhouses.com, which has many powerful tools for buying and selling your home.
I’ve added a fantastic home valuation tool to my website!
Just click the link, fill out the form, and I will send you a report on the house market in your neighborhood!
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During the time we lived in NJ and through several unforeseen events we relied on Nancy and her real estate acumen to help us with our housing needs in Essex County. Our story began simply, we were moving from Manhattan and wanted to rent in the area. Nancy gladly took us on weekend tours and we soon found a great house near my work. Unfortunately, that deal fell through and Nancy used her expertise and contacts to help with the failed transaction and find us a new place to live in a short time and with our distance constraints. Soon it was time to buy our own house and Nancy took us on many tours and helped us close a transaction with a difficult seller. We renovated our new home and made it our own . . . only to have a tree crush it during Hurricane Sandy. Guess who was one of the first people we called? Even during the craziness of the hurricane, Nancy found us rental homes to tour only two days after the storm and we were able to relocate our family to somewhere safe while our home was rebuilt.
Then this year we decided to take a job out of state. I’m happy to report that our house received several offers and we accepted a bid that was above our asking price. The home selling process was seamless and totally painless from start to finish. I am so glad we met Nancy; the facts speak for themselves. She is reliable, gets back to us quickly and did an excellent job with all these transactions and setbacks we experienced. She also had good recommendations on schools, dentists, lawyers, you name it! We truly tested the full range of her abilities! If you choose her as your agent you won’t be disappointed.
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